Ukraine-Russia tensions: Why concerns of a Russian invasion are high
Russia’s military presence at the Ukraine border has led to fears of an invasion. Here’s what we know.
Just the FAQs, USA TODAY
- Russia’s troop buildup grows, says US envoy to Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
- Harris and Blinken are meeting with NATO and European allies at Munich Security Conference.
- Blinken will meet with his Russian counterpart next week, if Russia hasn’t invaded Ukraine.
President Joe Biden will again address the nation Friday on the situation in Ukraine, the second time this week he has delivered public remarks on the growing conflict with Russia.
Biden will talk about ongoing efforts to find a diplomatic solution and address Russia’s buildup of military troops on the border of Ukraine, the White House announced.
He’s scheduled to speak from the White House at 4 p.m.
While diplomacy continued in Europe and Washington over tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine, Moscow announced its military would conduct massive drills of its strategic nuclear forces this weekend. And a new report says Russia’s military buildup could involve as many as 190,000 troops.
Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken are in Munich for a three-day security conference, at which efforts to diffuse the crisis in eastern Europe were concurrent with the program. On Friday, the vice president met with the leader of NATO and is scheduled to talk with Baltic state leadership.
“Our alliance and commitment to NATO is enduring,” Harris said.
On Russia, she said, “We remain open to and desirous of diplomacy,” she continued, noting there will be “severe consequences” for Moscow should it go forward with an invasion.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will personally oversee Saturday’s exercise, which will involve multiple practice launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, the Defense Ministry said, adding the exercises had been planned in advance.
More: Cyber attacks and disinformation are everyday tactics for Putin’s Russia. Is that the future of war?
Separatists regions call for evacuations, countering West warnings
Immediate worries on Friday focused on eastern Ukraine, where Ukrainian forces have been fighting pro-Russia rebels since 2014 in a conflict that has killed some 14,000 people.
A bombing struck a car outside the main government building in the major eastern city of Donetsk, according to an Associated Press journalist there. The head of the separatists’ forces, Denis Sinenkov, said the car was his, the Interfax news agency reported.
There were no reports of casualties and no independent confirmation of the circumstances of the blast. Uniformed men inspected the burned-out car. Broken glass littered the area,
Shelling and shooting are common along the line that separates Ukrainian forces and the rebels, but targeted violence is unusual in rebel-held cities like Donetsk.
Related: What is a false flag? US says Russia may use the tactic to justify Ukraine invasion
However, the explosion and the announced evacuations were in line with U.S. warnings of so-called false flag attacks that Russia would use to justify an invasion. The U.S. State Department noted that Secretary of State Antony Blinken had warned of “this type of false-flag operation” on Thursday at the U.N. Security Council.
Separatists in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions that form Ukraine’s industrial heartland known as the Donbas said they are evacuating civilians to Russia. The announcement appeared to be part of Moscow’s efforts to counter Western warnings of a Russian invasion, and paint Ukraine as the aggressor instead.
Russian may have built up as many as 190K troops
Russian troops in and near Ukraine have grown from about 100,000 at the end of January to between 169,000 and 190,000, the U.S. envoy to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said Friday.
“This is the most significant military mobilization in Europe since the Second World War,” Ambassador Michel Carpenter said at a meeting of the regional security organization in Vienna.
Carpenter charged Russia, which did not participate in the meeting, with refusing to answer questions about its “unprecedented military buildup.”
More: Is Russia going to invade Ukraine? Some images suggest pullback. US says not true.
“Rather than provide transparency and engage in risk reduction, Russia has chosen to provide disinformation and engage in denial and deception,” Carpenter said. “It cynically tries to portray Ukraine, NATO, and the United States as aggressors at the same time as it positions a massive strike force, threatening to invade its neighbor.”
Carpenter repeated frequent warnings from U.S. officials that Russia is intent on creating a pretext to justify an invasion into Ukraine and could invade “at any moment.”
– Maureen Groppe
Harris at Munich Security Conference
Harris takes a visible role on the world stage this weekend as the top American official at the Munich Security Conference.
Harris met Friday with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, as well as with the leaders of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.
“We remain of course supportive of diplomacy as it relates to the dialogue and discussions we’ve had with Russia, but we are also committed to taking corrective actions to ensure there will be severe consequences in terms of the sanctions we have discussed,” she said ahead of a meeting with Stoltenberg.
On Saturday, she is to deliver a major address on the administration’s efforts to stop Russian aggression. After the speech, she’s expected to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
Blinken to meet Lavrov
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet his Russian counterpart in Europe late next week, said State Department spokesperson Ned Price in a statement.
“The Secretary noted in his remarks at the UN Security Council today that, because we believe the only responsible way to resolve this crisis is through diplomacy and dialogue, he had proposed to meet Foreign Minister Lavrov in Europe next week,” Price said.
“The Russians have responded with proposed dates for late next week, which we are accepting, provided there is no further Russian invasion of Ukraine. If they do invade in the coming days, it will make clear they were never serious about diplomacy. We will continue to coordinate with our Allies and partners and push for further engagements with Russia through the NATO-Russia Council and OSCE,” the statement concluded.
Contributing: Associated Press
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