“Look at the massive flattening in the 2y10y – it’s signaling that the [Federal Reserve’s] ability to engineer a soft landing is quite narrow,” David Duong, head of institutional research at Coinbase, said, referring to the two-year/10-year Treasury bond spread. “Plus, there’s still a large risk that inflation could remain high and sticky, even with the base effects that could kick in. It’s not immediately clear to me that a terminal rate [peak rate of the tightening cycle] of 2.375% would satisfy that.”
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